Today, users can only Publish without notifying watchers by clicking into the ellipsis menu, and selecting "Publish without Notifying Watchers." Users can only do so on consecutive updates to their page, but NOT on initial Publish. 

At Confluence, we hear the need to provide quick and easy ways for creators to control who gets notified and when. 

Customer Feedback noted here with the release of the new Publish Dialog. 

https://community.atlassian.com/t5/Confluence-articles/A-better-publishing-experience-is-coming-to-you/ba-p/2395090/page/2