Out-of-date Confluence upgrade fails with no useful explanation

I attempted an upgrade from Confluence 2.2.9 to 2.3.3 (approximately). The licence used in my 2.2.9 instance had expired when 2.3.3 was released.

I got the following feedback

2007-02-22 15:59:50,890 INFO [main] [com.atlassian.confluence.lifecycle] contextInitialized Starting Confluence @VERSION@ (build #702)
2007-02-22 16:11:54,265 DEBUG [main] [net.sf.hibernate.SQL] log select confluence0_.BANDANAID as BANDANAID, confluence0_.BANDANACONTEXT as BANDANAC2_, confluence0_.BANDANAKEY as BANDANAKEY, confluence0_.BANDANAVALUE as BANDANAV4_ from BANDANA confluence0_ where (confluence0_.BANDANACONTEXT=? )
2007-02-22 16:11:54,359 ERROR [main] [sf.hibernate.util.JDBCExceptionReporter] logExceptions Table not found in statement [select confluence0_.BANDANAID as BANDANAID, confluence0_.BANDANACONTEXT as BANDANAC2_, confluence0_.BANDANAKEY as BANDANAKEY, confluence0_.BANDANAVALUE as BANDANAV4_ from BANDANA confluence0_ where (confluence0_.BANDANACONTEXT=? )]
2007-02-22 16:11:54,359 ERROR [main] [sf.hibernate.util.JDBCExceptionReporter] logExceptions Table not found in statement [select confluence0_.BANDANAID as BANDANAID, confluence0_.BANDANACONTEXT as BANDANAC2_, confluence0_.BANDANAKEY as BANDANAKEY, confluence0_.BANDANAVALUE as BANDANAV4_ from BANDANA confluence0_ where (confluence0_.BANDANACONTEXT=? )]
2007-02-22 16:11:54,375 ERROR [main] [sf.hibernate.util.JDBCExceptionReporter] logExceptions Table not found in statement [select confluence0_.BANDANAID as BANDANAID, confluence0_.BANDANACONTEXT as BANDANAC2_, confluence0_.BANDANAKEY as BANDANAKEY, confluence0_.BANDANAVALUE as BANDANAV4_ from BANDANA confluence0_ where (confluence0_.BANDANACONTEXT=? )]
2007-02-22 16:11:54,375 ERROR [main] [sf.hibernate.util.JDBCExceptionReporter] logExceptions Table not found in statement [select confluence0_.BANDANAID as BANDANAID, confluence0_.BANDANACONTEXT as BANDANAC2_, confluence0_.BANDANAKEY as BANDANAKEY, confluence0_.BANDANAVALUE as BANDANAV4_ from BANDANA confluence0_ where (confluence0_.BANDANACONTEXT=? )]
2007-02-22 16:11:54,375 ERROR [main] [atlassian.confluence.event.ConfluenceEventManager] publishEvent An exception was encountered while processing the event: com.atlassian.confluence.event.events.admin.ConfluenceReadyEvent[source=com.atlassian.confluence.upgrade.impl.DefaultUpgradeManager@554210]
org.springframework.jdbc.BadSqlGrammarException: Bad SQL grammar [] in task 'Hibernate operation'; nested exception is java.sql.SQLException: Table not found in statement [select confluence0_.BANDANAID as BANDANAID, confluence0_.BANDANACONTEXT as BANDANAC2_, confluence0_.BANDANAKEY as BANDANAKEY, confluence0_.BANDANAVALUE as BANDANAV4_ from BANDANA confluence0_ where (confluence0_.BANDANACONTEXT=? )]
java.sql.SQLException: Table not found in statement [select confluence0_.BANDANAID as BANDANAID, confluence0_.BANDANACONTEXT as BANDANAC2_, confluence0_.BANDANAKEY as BANDANAKEY, confluence0_.BANDANAVALUE as BANDANAV4_ from BANDANA confluence0_ where (confluence0_.BANDANACONTEXT=? )]
at org.hsqldb.jdbc.Util.throwError(Unknown Source)
at org.hsqldb.jdbc.jdbcPreparedStatement.<init>(Unknown Source)
at org.hsqldb.jdbc.jdbcConnection.prepareStatement(Unknown Source)
at com.mchange.v2.c3p0.impl.NewProxyConnection.prepareStatement(NewProxyConnection.java:190)

...

at com.atlassian.confluence.upgrade.impl.DefaultUpgradeManager.upgrade(DefaultUpgradeManager.java:58)
at com.atlassian.upgrade.UpgradeLauncherServletContextListener.contextInitialized(UpgradeLauncherServletContextListener.java:26)
...

Apparently not being allowed to upgrade is not considered an exceptional condition, so the upgrade manager tries to tell us that Confluence is ready. That triggers something to look in bandana for something, which fails due to the skipped upgrade, triggering the stacktrace.

Using the browser to connect to Confluence gives an Oops message with no stacktrace.